TLZ EnergyLatest forecasts across the NEM
The most recent published day-ahead forecast for each region: expected average price, the 80% range and the chance of at least one half-hour above $300/MWh, with live accuracy since October. Select a region to open its full chart.
NSW1 price chart & forecast
Read it like a trading chart. Intraday shows the 48 half-hours of one day; 1D / 1W / 1M / 1Y show the settled price as candles (open, high, low, close of the half-hourly prices) or as a line of the period's average. The blue line and band are the TLZ forecast and its 80% interval; the dashed line is AEMO's 12:30 pre-dispatch.
How the live forecasts have performed
Every day since the live pipeline started, compared with what actually settled. Each forecast is published before the day it covers and is never revised afterwards; the model is retrained weekly, only on days that have already settled. Click a row to load that day in the chart above.
Daily mean absolute error ($/MWh)
Daily results
Built for calibration, not just accuracy
Most price forecasts are a single line. Trading and storage decisions depend on the range of outcomes, so we forecast quantiles and then calibrate them so that the stated probabilities hold up.
Market data
AEMO NEMWEB public data, ingested automatically.
- 12:30 pre-dispatch prices for NSW, QLD, VIC and SA
- Forecast demand, available generation, reserve margin, wind and solar
- Pre-dispatch price-sensitivity scenarios
- Recent settled prices and pre-dispatch errors
Quantile model
Gradient-boosted quantile regression.
- 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles for all 48 half-hours
- Variance-stabilised price scale handles negative prices and spikes
- Separate spike-probability model for prices above $300/MWh
- Retrained weekly as new settled data arrives
Conformal calibration
Adaptive, hour-by-hour calibration layer.
- Separate lower and upper corrections for each hour of day
- Recent errors weighted more heavily as the market evolves
- Keeps interval coverage at its stated level
Open to collaboration
I'm actively looking for partners — retailers, battery and renewable operators, traders, researchers and investors. Pilot access to the daily forecast feed and the full backtest is available.